Expected profit is the average net dollars per attempt, given the
hit-rate profile at the top of the page (35% PSA 10, 45% PSA 9, 15% PSA 8,
5% below). The profile is a modern-near-mint prior — not measured, not
per-card. Older cards and cards with known print defects hit lower.
Break-even PSA 10 is the P(PSA 10) you would need for the pick to
exactly cover fees + grading + shipping + the raw buy — holding the other
hit rates as assumed. The lower it is, the less the pick depends on the
guess. Fees are 15% + $1.30 per sale (eBay), grading is the
cheapest PSA tier that covers the expected slab value, shipping to the
grader is $8. Time to grade is on the tile — a 20% expected return
over 90 days is a real number; annualising is not.
Every pick's detail view also shows live snipes when available
— matched eBay listings that identified as this card and scored PSA 10
or 9 on centering. The list refreshes every 12h via a scheduled job,
so the buys under each pick reflect what's actually listed right now.
The auto-snipe command is still there for on-demand runs.
Undervalued finds at the bottom of the page is a separate sweep —
broad eBay queries where mistitled or generic listings ("pokemon lot",
"pokemon holo") hide singles worth much more than the ask. Every hit
is identified visually with a tighter gate than the per-pick snipe
(pHash + ORB agreement + title cross-check + market ≥ 3× ask). A
confidence bar rides on each row so you know how much trust to put in
the ID.
Listings priced well below market — broad eBay queries where mistitled singles hide. Each hit is confirmed by name + set query, then filtered to 60%+ off before surfacing.